Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $200,000 by End of 2025 Thanks to ETFs and US Policy
Standard Chartered Bank has made a bold prediction about Bitcoin, saying that the digital currency could hit $135,000 by the end of Q3 and peak at $200,000 by the end of 2025. The prediction comes from Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Asset Research, who believes that factors such as surging ETF inflows, booming institutional demand, and policy catalysts in the US are shaping up to be an unprecedented bull run for Bitcoin.
Strengthened by ETFs and Corporate Treasuries
In a report released on July 2, Standard Chartered said that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to remain high, creating sustainable momentum for prices. In the second quarter alone, businesses bought more than 245,000 BTC, a clear demonstration of the structural shift in how institutions approach digital assets.
The approval of an ETF in the US not only opens up new capital from professional investors, but also legitimizes Bitcoin’s role as a mainstream investment asset. Kendrick said he expects the rally to continue as large companies continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets, much like companies have done with gold during times of uncertainty.
Two Policy Factors That Could Shape the Market
Standard Chartered also highlighted two macro and regulatory factors that could play a decisive role in the uptrend:
Potential for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to step down early: If this happens, the Federal Reserve could be led by a leader with a more dovish stance on monetary policy, which would support risk assets like Bitcoin.
Potential Stablecoin Regulation in the US: Creating a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins could be the first step to boosting the entire crypto industry. A favorable policy environment would help remove barriers and increase confidence for institutions looking to access the market.
Bitcoin Beyond the Traditional Halving Model
Typically, Bitcoin bull cycles follow the halving event with a lag of about 18 months. However, according to Standard Chartered, this cycle is changing. The emergence of ETFs, the growing involvement of major financial institutions, and clear policies are making Bitcoin price movements happen earlier and more strongly.
In particular, the shift from retail speculation to institutional investment has changed the nature of the market. Bulls argue that, rather than being driven by “FOMO” as in previous cycles, Bitcoin is now being supported by long-term capital flows and strategic vision from institutional investors.
Market Sentiment: Overheated or Revaluing?
While Bitcoin has enjoyed a strong run in the first half of 2025, some analysts have warned of the possibility of the market overheating. However, Geoff Kendrick argues that the current price only reflects a small part of the long-term dynamics that are taking shape.
He even apologized for an earlier prediction when he estimated Bitcoin at just $120,000 a figure he now admits is “too low” in the current climate.
Conclusion: $200,000 Is No Longer a Science Fiction
With the backing of ETFs, the expansion of treasury allocations by large corporations, and increasingly friendly policies from the US government, Bitcoin is on the verge of setting a new historical record.
Standard Chartered is not simply making a forecast based on price charts or technical analysis. Their forecast is built on the structural changes in the global financial market where Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset but is becoming part of the long-term asset management strategies of large institutions.
If policy factors and capital flows continue to develop as expected, the $200,000 mark for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 could completely become a reality, making BTC a strategic asset on par with gold in global investment portfolios.