Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Further Breakout or Deep Correction?
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in a key price zone as the market shows mixed signals, reflecting clear indecision between buyers and sellers. As of June 27, 2025, BTC price reached $106,848 with 24-hour trading volume at $22.27 billion, equivalent to a market capitalization of $2.12 trillion. During the day, the relatively narrow price range of $106,709 to $107,884 suggests a period of accumulation and waiting for new momentum.
Daily technical analysis: Bullish trend remains dominant
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is holding above the $105,000 support zone after a strong rebound from the $98,240 bottom. The V-shaped structure from this low shows that strong buying pressure has returned to the market, with the price holding above all important moving averages:
10-day EMA: $105,718
10-day SMA: $104,894
Momentum indicators also support the bullish view in the short term. The Awesome Oscillator, MACD, and Momentum indicators all recorded positive signals, indicating that money flows are favoring the buying side.
However, the resistance level of $111,816 remains a major challenge. This is an area where the price has been rejected multiple times in recent rallies. To break this level, BTC needs more buying pressure and a significant increase in trading volume.
4-hour chart: Bullish flag or distribution?
In the 4-hour chart, the price action is moving sideways in the accumulation range after the surge to $108,358. The pattern can be interpreted as a bullish flag signaling a trend continuation but it is also likely to be a distribution phase before a correction.
The reduced volume during the consolidation suggests hesitation on the part of the market. A breakout above $108,500 on high volume would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, opening the way for a short-term target of $109,000 to $111,000. Conversely, a bounce from the $105,000 support zone could be a safe entry point for trend traders.
1-Hour Analysis: Cautious Expectations Ahead of Resistance
The 1-hour timeframe shows signs of a slight correction after establishing a lower high at $108,358. The price is currently retesting the key support zone of $106,394 that has held its ground twice. If this support holds, the $106,000 – $106,400 range could provide strategic buying points.
Temporary resistance is around $107,800 – $108,200. A break above $107,500 with strong volume could trigger momentum trades, but placing a stop loss below $106,300 is necessary to control risk.
Oscillators: Neutral to positive
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55 in neutral territory, indicating that momentum is not yet biased.
Stochastic Oscillator: 82 warns of a slight overbought possibility, but not at a dangerous level.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): 50 gives a clear neutral signal.
ADX (Average Directional Index): 15 confirms the current trend is still weak, the market lacks explosive momentum.
These data reinforce the argument that BTC is in a consolidation zone and a breakout will only occur with clear confirmation from trading volume.
Moving Averages: Bullish
All the short-term to long-term averages (EMA and SMA from 10 to 200 periods) are currently below the price, giving a clear bullish signal on all time frames. This structure reflects significant strength from the previous recovery, however, caution is needed if volume fails to sustain as price approaches resistance.
Scenario to Watch
Bullish Case:
If BTC breaks $108,500 with confirming volume, a retest of the $111,000 – $112,000 zone is likely. Continued institutional inflows and a sustained price above $105,000 would help maintain a strong uptrend.
Bearish Case:
If BTC fails to break above $108,500 and breaks the $105,000 support zone amid increased selling volume, the short-term bullish pattern would be broken. The $98,240 zone would then be the next support point, especially if the global financial markets revert to a “risk-off” trend.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is hovering in a sensitive zone where both bulls and bears have reasons to wait or act. Technically, the signals are slightly bullish but not convincing enough to rule out a correction scenario. Traders should prioritize a “confirmation trade” strategy, especially based on volume and price action at the $105,000 and $108,500 levels, two milestones that will shape Bitcoin’s next move in the short term.